Navigating the Global Landscape of Melt Blown Nonwovens: Trends and Outlook

The global landscape of melt blown nonwovens, primarily driven by the demand for face masks, witnessed a remarkable surge in capacity starting from the first quarter of 2020. However, this surge was not sustainable, and demand began to taper off by mid-2021, eventually normalizing to pre-Covid levels by the end of 2023. This shift in demand dynamics had significant implications for the industry, particularly for the numerous newly installed melt blown lines.

During the period from 2020 to 2023, the number of global melt blown lines installed experienced unprecedented growth, far surpassing historical rates with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of over 9%. This surge resulted in a doubling of stand-alone meltblown machines compared to those existing in 2019. However, as the demand for Covid-related products declined, many of these newly commissioned lines either remained idle or operated at suboptimal utilization levels.

Looking back to the pre-pandemic period, the global stand-alone nameplate capacity of melt blown machines was estimated to be approximately 115,000 tonnes, yielding an output of about 94,200 tonnes. The main markets for this output included absorbent end-uses, insulation, filtration, wipes, face masks, and hygiene products. Despite healthy growth rates, the capacity utilization rate stood at 79.8% in 2019.

Fast forward to 2023, and the global nameplate capacity had expanded to around 273,000 tons, with an output capacity of approximately 203,200 tons. Despite this increase, global demand for all markets only reached about 121,685 tonnes, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of 59.9%. This growth translated to a robust CAGR of 12.9% over the four-year period from 2019 to 2023.

Looking ahead, assuming a more moderate demand growth rate of 6.5% and no further capacity additions, it is projected that full global capacity utilization will not be achieved until around 2031. However, achieving full capacity utilization will vary across regions and producers, depending on demand and supply dynamics.

In response to this oversupply, producers will need to adapt their strategies. Established players in the melt blown nonwovens market, leveraging their experience and financial capabilities, will focus on expanding their market share and exploring new opportunities. On the other hand, new or less established producers will need to invest in resources and capabilities for product and market development, alongside marketing and sales efforts. Those with versatile production capabilities, including the ability to utilize various raw materials and extrude bicomponent fibers, will have a competitive advantage in this evolving landscape.

In conclusion, while the surge in melt blown nonwovens capacity has presented challenges in the short term, proactive adaptation and strategic positioning will be key to navigating the evolving dynamics of this industry in the years to come.